Bang for Your Buck: Remaining Values on the Free Agent Market

Every year, as the Hot Stove season winds down in January and February, a few players will be signed for less than they are probably worth. Bobby Abreu in 2009 is the classic example, but even outside of this context, there are deals to be had. In this post, I will examine a few such deals that could be had in this season's remaining free agent class.

These players could be bargains for several reasons: a deep position (not a seller's market, if you will), coming off injury, or just undervalued skillsets. Let's get started:

Mike Gonzalez, RP -- A lot of Gonzalez' value comes from his handedness. Left-handed relievers carry more value from their pitching hand than lefty starters, because they are more maneuverable, and a team can capitalize on their platoon advantage. In his career, Mike Gonzalez has a .616 OPS against and a 3.68 K/BB with left-handed hitters. This is not to say he can't get righties out, either. Despite his recent struggles in Baltimore, Gonzalez has a K/9 over ten, a K/BB of 2.53, and a 124 ERA+ against all competition since 2009. Additionally, while Gonzalez' K-rate took a hit in 2011 (it was below 9 for the first time since his injury-plagued 2007 campaign) his ability to miss bats was still well-above-average in 2011, as a 10.1% swinging-strike rate shows.

Where's the Bang? Gonzalez' value comes from being a left-handed reliever able to miss bats. Even in a down 2011, he was still quite good, according to the peripherals (3.73 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA). Gonzalez would be a great addition to almost any bullpen, able to work as either a LOOG or setup man as the situation dictates.

The Buck? The market for relievers has more or less collapsed after the Bailey trade. No real powers in baseball need proven relievers, and there are several (Cordero, Rodriguez, Madson) on the market -- and Mike Gonzalez isn't one of them. Gonzalez earned $6 MM in 2011, but was, in the public eye, a failure. Keep in mind, also, that that money was supposed to be for a closer, a job he never fulfilled, racking up two saves in the last two years. A guy who has never been a closer, will be 34, is an injury risk, and who is perceived by the public as a failure? It would be hard to imagine a team needing to give him more than $2 MM on a one-year deal, perhaps $5 MM over two years. At most, he would be getting paid for half a win per year, value he can easily create.

Kosuke Fukudome, OF. Fukudome brings a lot of tools to the table. He likes to walk, he fields very well, and even has a little bit of power. This showed in 2011 to the tune of a 2.8 WAR, and, even with his age taken into account, he should be an average-plus player in 2012 (2-2.5 WAR). The bargain, of course, is in that he will not be paid as one.

Where's the Bang? Fukudome will provide value. He has an average of a little over 2 WAR per season in his four MLB seasons, and provided 2.8 in 2011. Can he put up another 2.8? Probably not. He's likely more of an average guy. A slashline of .260/.350/.375 or so, and a plus glove in a corner outfield position is what you're going to get, and there is a spot for a guy like that on plenty of teams.


The Buck? Bobby Abreu comes to mind here. An aging corer outfielder, Bobby Abreu was a very good player in New York. From 2006-2008 he gathered 9.4 wins, and this was at the tail end of a Hall of Fame-caliber prime. Bobby Abreu got $5 MM and one year from the Angels. Abreu, like Fukudome now, was turning 35. Fukudome is not Bobby Abreu. Ya dig? There's a deal to be had here.

Casey Kotchman, 1B. Kotchman was a bit of a breakout in 2011, finally cashing in on the promise we once saw in him as an Angels minor leaguer (four-time top-22 prospect by Baseball America, ranked #6 in 2005). He had a big year, slashing .306/.378/.422 and posting a 2.9 WAR.

Where's the Bang? Normally when a guy goes from fringe bench player to fringe All-Star you shake your head and say 'next' like your friendly DOT clerk. Kotchman, however, is a special case. From the time he was drafted 13th overall by Anaheim in 2001, he was supposed to win batting titles, and even in his MLB career he has shown good tools: the ability to take a walk, a strong aversion to strikeouts, and the ability to play a slick first base. If you look at his peripherals, there aren't even real glaring holes. His babip is a little elevated, but at the same time his HR/FB rate was depressed and he drew fewer walks without increasing any of the stats that would indicate a propensity to do so (chiefly O-Swing%, or swinging at balls). All told, given his age (28), there is little reason to expect Kotchman to fail to put up something like a 2.5 WAR again.

The Buck? Kotchman might be had at a bargain simply because nobody needs a first baseman. There are a few destinations: the Cubs, Indians, and Brewers are really the only ones with no better options, and it's tough to imagine Cleveland getting into a bidding war over Casey Kotchman. This leaves Chicago and Milwaukee, the latter of which may end up finding an internal option like Mat Gamel or even Aramis Ramirez. Kotchman seems like a perfect fit for Chicago, who has indicated that they will be shying away from a complete rebuild, but probably aren't going to be big spenders. Keep in mind, however, that Kotchman isn't the only 1B on the market. You may have heard of Prince Fielder. So, with limited destinations, vastly superior competition and a 2011 (third-year arbitration) salary of just $3.5 MM, it would be hard to imagine Kotchman fetching even half of his own value. Something to the effect of $5-7 MM per season sounds appropriate, maybe even an Adam LaRoche deal ($16 MM/2 years + option).

And there you go, as I see it, some of the top bargains to be had remaining on the free agent market.

Trade Review: Gio Gonzalez to Washington

Thursday, the Nationals acquired one of the best remaining available starting pitchers of the offseason, trading for Oakland's Gio Gonzalez. In return, the Nationals sent a bursting package of prospects to the A's, right-handers AJ Cole and Brad Peacock, lefty Tom Milone and personal favorite top catching prospect Derek Norris. Without further gilding the lily, let's get into the meat and potatoes, shall we?

What do the Nationals Get?

The Nationals gave up a package of prospects for a reason, and that reason is that Gonzalez effectively plugs a hole in their roster. The rotation presumably consisted of exciting youngsters Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, and venerable innings-eaters John Lannan and Chien-Ming Wang. Gonzalez adds a fifth quality arm to the equation, ensuring that the Nationals will have a chance to win every game they play in 2012.

Gonzalez is a highly talented pitcher. He has good stuff, featuring a plus mid-90s fastball with some lateral movement as well as a wipeout curveball that was one of the best breaking pitches in the American League. He can be wild at times, but has found pretty good success for his age (he will be 26 in 2012), posting a 129 ERA+ the last two seasons, as well as a 3.64 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, and a 3.78 SIERA in 2011. He isn't a stud, but he is an effective, young, cost-controlled (he isn't free agent-eligible until after the 2015 season) pitcher that should post reliable innings totals (402 IP in the last two seasons) for years to come.

What do the Athletics Get?

The Athletics get a surprising haul of prospects, and, for the sake of sanity, I'll simply list them here, case-by-case.

AJ Cole is an exciting young pitcher. Just 19 at Single-A Hagerstown in 2011, he posted a 10.9 K/9 and a 4.50 K/BB in 89 innings. He is very young, but is quite advanced, and his stuff makes him look like a future very good pitcher in the major leagues. He features easy, repeatable low-mid-90s heat, a power curve that draws comparisons to Matt Garza, and a simplistic delivery that has scouts raving about his health outlook as well as his control.


Brad Peacock will be 24 in 2012, and is probably as MLB-ready as he is going to get. He has been clocked as high as 97 with the fastball, which has been described as flat, and compliments it with a decent curveball. He has solid control, with an ever-declining walk rate, and a 3.1 BB/9 in the minors, and showed an ability to attack major league hitters during a September callup in 2011. He profiles as a back-end starter or reliever, which is probably his most appropriate destination, as he does not feature an impressive third pitch.

Tom Milone is that guy who gets outs despite a fastball in the 80s and a curveball that will not buckle many knees. He has off-the-charts control, posting a 9.69 K/BB in 148 Triple-A innings in 2011. He will be 25 in 2012, and is definitely MLB-ready. All that remains to be seen is how well his stuff will play at the Major-league level.

Derek Norris is a monster. If you clicked the link above, you'll know what he can do, and that is basically, so far in his minor league career, get on base at a .400 clip, hit 20+ home runs, and throw out 40% of attempted base stealers. He will be 23 in 2012, probably at Triple-A, and should be regarded as a top catching prospect.

Altogether, the Athletics get two pitchers who could contribute at the major-league level, and a very good pitching and catching prospect, a pair of very valuable assets.

The Winner:

Oakland, without a doubt. The package of prospects is impressive, and Peacock and Milone by themselves should replace the majority of the value that Gonzalez took with him to Washington, to say nothing of Norris and Cole, who could be major league stars one day. I think Oakland pulled a fast one on Washington here, gathering one of the biggest packages of prospects we've seen in a while, and not even for an elite talent.

The Loser:

Washington lost this one. Gonzalez is a quality arm, and has posted a pair of good seasons, but everything about him comes with a heavy dose of salt: Yes, he strikes guys out, but he's also led the AL in walks against over the last two years. Yes, he is cost-controlled for four more seasons, but that is not synonymous with 'cheap'. He's due for a raise to what MLB Trade Rumors is speculating to be $4.2 MM in 2012, and that will only go up in future years. The Nationals had some very good arms in their rotation, and really only needed some innings, innings that they had in guys like Peacock, Milone, Ross Detwiler, or readily and cheaply available in names like Livan Hernandez or Joe Saunders. It looks like they succeeded in making a splash -- but I believe they paid too much for it.

Robert Gilliam: is a guy. He was included in the deal, sent with Gonzalez to Washington. Here are some things about him.

The Bottom Line:

The Nationals appear to have traded for a top-end starter, and got a guy more resembling a middle-of-the-rotation guy. I'm afraid they may look up this time next year and realize that they paid as much for the Oakland Coliseum effect as anything.



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Postscript: Beyond the Box Score takes a look at the trade and finds a similar conclusion to mine; that the collection of prospects should provide more value than Gonzalez in coming years.

What If: Jesus Montero for Gio Gonzalez?

The New York Yankees need to add a starting pitcher, this is not a secret. And, they would love for that pitcher to be of the left-handed variety. Apparently, in baseball circles it is believed not only that the Yankees will try to add a lefty, but that they will succeed. The market, however, is slim for lefties, which has given rise to an interesting scenario: Jesus Montero for the Oakland A's' Gio Gonzalez.

New York has, sensibly, been protecting Montero. The soon-to-be 22-year-old catcher is one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, and has been considered off-limits, and rightfully so. I'll fill you in on his statistical accomplishments, but suffice it to say, he should not be brought off the top shelf for anything but elite talent.

Gio Gonzalez is a prize to be had. He is young, just 25 in 2011, and has been reliably good in his career, posting a 3.17 ERA over the last two seasons to go with a 3.72 FIP and a 3.95 SIERA. He has very good stuff and command, resulting in solid peripherals that should translate to any ballpark, and, perhaps most importantly, will not qualify for free agency until after the 2015 season.

I will state early on that I would not trade Jesus Montero for anything but an ace, and as good as Gonzalez is, I don't think he constitutes that. Still, Gonzalez might be the best starter on the market, and is still a very, very good pitcher. Besides, this is a hypothetical. Lighten up, would you?

What I have decided to do here is provide what would happen, in terms of value, to each player in his new home. In the coming six seasons, what will Montero do, versus what will Gonzalez do in the next four, because if they are traded one-for-one, that is essentially the deal: four of Gio for six of Montero.

Gonzalez is the easy one, because he has an established track record. He posted a 3.7 WAR in 2010, followed by a 3.6 in 2011 according to StatCorner and their handy batted-ball metrics. According to FanGraphs' WAR, he had a 3.5 last season. Because of Gonzalez' age (he might still be improving), 3.7 makes the most sense to me, so, what's four years of 3.7 wins? 14.8. Basically, the Athletics are offering up 15 wins.

What can Montero do, now? Most people know of his exploits in the minors. He's a career .308/.366/.467 hitter in the minors, and over the last two years, both at Triple-A, has collected 967 PAs at a .289/.351/.493 clip. He got a brief callup toward the end of this past season, and, for good measure, he posted an OPS of .996 in 69 PAs.

How does all of this translate to a MLB uniform, where predicting is concerned? Using this minor league equivalency translator, and Montero's 2010 stats (it was the better of his two seasons, which, considering his cup of coffee in 2011, I decided would be more useful), I can make him out to be a .250/.304/.429 hitter -- but I think it would be prudent to consider him capable of significantly greater things, even at this age. His average and on-base should be right around average (.275 and .335), with very good power (.425-.450). If he is a DH and accumulates 600 PAs, this amounts to approximately 6 batting runs above average.

Take those 6 runs, tag him with a -3 for baserunning and GIDPs, take a -14 for being a DH, then add your 19 replacement runs, and Montero is about a 1-win player. Many of the Yankee fans reading this (I know we have tons, of course), will be up in arms about this, but remember, DHs get nothing. David Ortiz had a 3.8 this season, and he did .309/.398/.550 -- Montero isn't David Ortiz. If you project a normal growth rate for a hitter of his talent (culminating in 25 runs as a hitter in his age 27 season), he accumulates 117 runs, or, 13 wins.

As a catcher, he is much more interesting. Montero is a notoriously bad catcher. He has led the International League each of the last two years in passed balls, with 23 over the two seasons. He can't really throw guys out, and has had CS% of just 23 and 20 in 2010 and '11. Not awful, but nothing to have any hope of him catching many guys at the big-league level. I'm trying to be fair when I say he would be a -15 fielder at the major league level as a catcher. He has a legitimate claim to the worst defensive catcher in the Show. But you don't come for the defense, do you?

If Montero was a catcher, you would have to believe he would get the bulk of the starts at catcher (say 130), and some significant time as a DH, ten games or so. What this gives us, over six years, is 165 runs, or 18 wins. Simply by being a catcher, Montero increases his value significantly, even if he is horrendous at it (and it would be tough for a guy to put up a -15 at any position for 6 straight years).

I don't know what Montero's future holds. He could, theoretically, catch, but the Yankees appeared to be weaning him off of that in 2011, and Oakland appears set with Kurt Suzuki. In any case, if you were to even the two out, you get... 15.7 wins. Ie: slightly more than the value of Gonzalez.

It's impossible to predict for 22-year-olds, but assuming that these predictions are anywhere close to true (it's the best we can do for accuracy), the Montero-for-Gonzalez swap is, if not one that should be done, deserves to be speculated about, in any case.