Well, the results are in. Every team has been previewed, so now it's time to show you how it all works together. For this, we're going to take a close look at each division, the key points from each team in that division, and what needs to happen for our predictions to be correct. See, before the standings were adjusted, we had predicted 110 more wins than are actually possible within the league (and that was with Houston at 48 wins). So as you can probably see, we're an optimistic bunch here at MLBMB (well, except for Houston, because they aren't good at all). Without further ado, let's look ahead to what the 2012 season has in store for us.
AL East
Yankees: 95-67
Red Sox: 94-68 (1 GB)
Rays: 84-78 (11 GB)
Blue Jays: 81-81 (14 GB)
Orioles: 72-90 (23 GB)
Top 5 Key Questions to Ask:
1) How will Michael Pineda perform with the pressure of New York after moving from the pitcher-friendly SAFECO to the pitcher-not-so-friendly Yankee Stadium?
2) Can Daniel Bard be an effective starter after making the transition from the bullpen to the rotation?
3) Will Carl Crawford bounce back after a disastrous 2011 campaign?
4) Matt Moore and Desmond Jennings are both young studs, but how much of an impact can they make in their first full seasons in the majors?
5) Will Baltimore's young pitching find a way to develop like many thought it would, or will the rotation crash and burn much like it did last year?
Team MVPs:
Yankees- Robinson Cano (6.0 WAR)
Red Sox- Adrian Gonzalez (7.0 WAR)
Rays- Evan Longoria (8.2 WAR)
Blue Jays- Brett Lawrie (6.0 WAR)
Orioles- Matt Wieters (5.0 WAR)
AL Central
Tigers: 95-67
Indians: 80-82 (15 GB)
Royals: 79-83 (16 GB)
White Sox: 76-86 (19 GB)
Twins: 74-88 (21 GB)
Top 5 Questions to Ask:
1) Can the Tigers stay healthy enough during the season and acquire another pitcher at the deadline to make them the legitimate World Series candidates many think they will be?
2) If there's a team in the division that could shock the world and challenge the Tigers, is it Kansas City or Cleveland?
3) Will the White Sox finally commit to a full rebuilding effort and continue to move big pieces as the season goes on?
4) If the M&M boys stay healthy, how much will the Twins improve?
5) Will Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Jason Kipnis, and the other young potential stars in this division bring the division out of the league cellar in the near future?
Team MVPs:
Tigers- Miguel Cabrera (7.0 WAR)
Indians- Shin-Soo Choo (5.8 WAR)
Royals- Eric Hosmer (5.0 WAR)
White Sox- Jake Peavy (4.0 WAR)
Twins- Joe Mauer (5.0 WAR)
AL West
Angels: 94-68
Rangers: 91-71 (3 GB)
Mariners: 73-89 (21 GB)
Athletics: 70-92 (24 GB)
Top 5 Questions to Ask:
1) Does Pujols bounce back to former Pujolsian levels, or is he officially starting to decline?
2) Can Yu Darvish be a legitimate ace in his first season, or will the Rangers be living with multiple #2/#3 starters?
3) Can Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak develop into the power hitters they are thought to be and give the Mariners a legitimate offense?
4) Who really is better? Angels or Rangers?
5) What kind of player is Yoenis Cespedes going to be as a power hitter in the Coliseum?
Team MVPs:
Angels- Albert Pujols (7.2 WAR)
Rangers- Ian Kinsler (6.4 WAR)
Mariners- Felix Hernandex (6.0 WAR)
Athletics- Brandon McCarther (3.7 WAR)
AL Wild Card Race
1. Red Sox: 94-68
2. Rangers: 91-71 (3 GB)
3. Rays: 84-78 (10 GB)
The introduction of the new 2 WC system won't do much for the AL as far as our predictions are concerned. As will be mentioned later the AL has 5 teams that are just well above and beyond the rest of the league, so expect the only close WC race to be between Boston and Texas for that one game of home-field advantage.
NL East
Phillies: 91-71
Nationals: 88-74 (3 GB)
Marlins: 87-75 (4 GB)
Braves: 87-75 (4 GB)
Mets: 71-91 (20 GB)
Top 5 Questions to Ask:
1) Can the Phillies produce enough offense to back up their elite pitching staff?
2) The Mets have a lot of potential that depends on guys coming back and being healthy, but can they get those wins?
3) Does Bryce Harper make the team out of spring training? If he doesn't, can the Nationals still call themselves a competitor for the 2nd NL Wild Card?
4) How will the Marlins' new ballpark play? Will it help their dynamic offense, or will it help their pitching staff?
5) Can Jason Heyward bounce back and lead the Braves' offense to be better than expectations?
Team MVPs:
Phillies- Roy Halladay (7.0 WAR)
Nationals- Stephen Strasburg (6.8 WAR)
Marlins- Josh Johnson (6.0 WAR)
Braves- Brian McCann (4.7 WAR)
Mets- David Wright (4.4 WAR)
NL Central
Reds: 90-72
Brewers: 88-74 (2 GB)
Cardinals: 85-77 (5 GB)
Pirates: 72-90 (18 GB)
Cubs: 69-93 (21 GB)
Astros: 44-118 (46 GB)
Top 5 Questions to Ask:
1) Can Aramis Ramirez and Mat Gamel lessen the blow from the loss of Fielder enough to let the Brewers stay in the division race?
2) Do the Reds go out and get another starter to give them a strong enough rotation to compete in the NL Playoffs?
3) Just how bad are the Astros going to be? With 8 NL teams capable of 90 wins, the Astros are looking like the only truly terrible NL team, so how many losses will they take on?
4) How do the Cardinals deal with the loss of Pujols? Can Beltran's knees hold up long enough to help him produce the value that Pujols would have provided offensively?
5) Adam Wainwright is coming off of TJS. Can he come back and be a top 5 pitcher in the league immediately after surgery?
Team MVPs:
Reds- Joey Votto (7.4 WAR)
Brewers- Ryan Braun (6.5 WAR)
Cardinals- Matt Holliday (5.5 WAR)
Pirates- Andrew McCutchen (5.8 WAR)
Cubs- Starlin Castro (3.4 WAR)
Astros- Wandy Rodriguez (3.1 WAR)
NL West
Diamondbacks: 87-75
Giants: 86-76 (1 GB)
Rockies: 81-81 (6 GB)
Padres: 74-88 (13 GB)
Dodgers: 72-90 (15 GB)
Top 5 Questions to Ask:
1) Is there a team that is going to separate itself from the pack and win 90 games in this division?
2) How long is Andre Ethier going to be wearing the Dodger blue?
3) Do the Rockies have enough pitching to go from mediocre to contender?
4) The Padres stacked the offense, but will it emerge this year?
5) The Diamondbacks were a Cinderella team last year, but are they going to be consistent contenders now?
Team MVPs:
Diamondbacks- Justin Upton (6.8 WAR)
Giants- Pablo Sandoval (6.0 WAR)
Rockies- Troy Tulowitzki (6.5 WAR)
Padres- Carlos Quentin (3.6 WAR)
Dodgers- Clayton Kershaw (7.3 WAR)
NL Wild Card Race
1. Nationals: 88-74
2. Brewers: 88-74
3. Marlins: 87-75 (1 GB)
4. Braves: 87-75 (1 GB)
5. Giants: 86-76 (2 GB)
6. Cardinals: 85-77 (3 GB)
7. Rockies: 81-81 (7 GB)
And this is why the 2 WC system is an ingenious idea. Is it really fair that only one of these teams get into the playoffs? I think not. There should be a one-game play in between the Brewers and Nationals, especially if they tie in a race that ends up being this close. Think about how fantastic this king of race could be.
Wooly's Answers to Each Division's Top Question
1) How will Michael Pineda perform with the pressure of New York after moving from the pitcher-friendly SAFECO to the pitcher-not-so-friendly Yankee Stadium?
Answer: Word early out of Yankees' camp is that Pineda isn't getting the velocity and life on his fastball that he used to dominate with the pitch last year. This would have a profound impact on his strikeout totals, which would really make this transition hard. If Pineda can't miss enough bats, the offenses in the AL East will eat him alive, and the Yankees will find themselves in search of starting pitching at the trade deadline. I don't think the transition will be favorable for him.
2) Can the Tigers stay healthy enough during the season and acquire another pitcher at the deadline to make them the legitimate World Series candidates many think they will be?
Answer: When looking at the Tigers' top players, they have some of the biggest workhorses in baseball. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder play 160+ games like clockwork, and Justin Verlander has smooth mechanics and has led the league in starts two of the past three years. However, when it comes to acquiring pitching at the deadline, they need to be ready to part with Nick Castellanos and Jacob Turner, which is something they seemed hesitant to do over the off season.
3) Does Pujols bounce back to former Pujolsian levels, or is he officially starting to decline?
Answer: Pujols' monthly splits last year went a little like this: sub-.800 OPS through May and roughly a .980 OPS in the four months after that. I don't think there's anything wrong with Pujols, and a year of the 4 months he put up at the end of last year puts him back at Pujolsian level.
4) Can the Phillies produce enough offense to back up their elite pitching staff?
Answer: I don't think so. Without Howard, they will have a very rough time producing runs offensively due to the absence of a big bat from the lineup. They might have the 4th or 5th best offense in the division, and this is the year that it becomes very possible for them to lose their stance as division champion.
5) Can Aramis Ramirez and Mat Gamel lessen the blow from the loss of Fielder enough to let the Brewers stay in the division race?
Answer: Prince Fielder was a 5.2 WAR player last year, meaning that the duo needs to produce that amount to make it as if Prince never left (and thus get back to a 90 win pythag record). Aramis Ramirez had a great year last year, but third base could be one of the most improved positions in baseball next year if guys can stay healthy. I think he can produce 2.5 to 3 wins, so that leaves Mat Gamel with performing as an average first baseman to meet the requirements. Honestly, I think they fall a win or two short, which is part of the reason the Brewers are predicted at 88 wins.
6) Is there a team that is going to separate itself from the pack and win 90 games in this division (the NL West)?
Answer: I think either the Diamondbacks or Giants could do it, but a lot has to go right for that to happen. I don't think the D-Backs will have the pitching, and I don't think the Giants will have the offense. This division really is the division of mediocrity heading into the 2012 season.
2013 Draft Order
1. Astros
2. Cubs
3. Athletics
4. Mets
5. Dodgers
6. Orioles
7. Pirates
8. Mariners
9. Twins
10. Padres
11. White Sox
12. Royals
13. Indians
14. Blue Jays
15. Rockies
16. Rays
17. Cardinals
18. Giants
19. Braves
20. Marlins
21. Diamondbacks
22. Brewers
23. Nationals
24. Reds
25. Rangers
26. Phillies
27. Red Sox
28. Angels
29. Tigers
30. Yankees
The MVP Races
Top 5 AL Team MVPs by WAR:
1. Evan Longoria- 8.2 WAR
2. Albert Pujols- 7.2 WAR
3. Miguel Cabrera- 7.0 WAR
4. Adrian Gonzalez- 7.0 WAR
5. Ian Kinsler- 6.4 WAR
Top 5 NL Team MVPs by WAR:
1. Joey Votto- 7.4 WAR
2. Clayton Kershaw- 7.3 WAR
3. Roy Halladay-7.0 WAR
4. Justin Upton- 6.8 WAR
Stephen Strasburg- 6.8 WAR
The Playoffs
AL:
East Champion: Yankees (95)
Central Champion: Tigers (95)
West Champion: Angels (94)
1st Wild Card: Red Sox (94)
2nd Wild Card: Rangers (91)
NL:
East Champion: Phillies (91)
Central Champion: Reds (90)
West Champion: Diamondbacks (87)
1st Wild Card: Nationals (88)
2nd Wild Card: Brewers (88)
Play-In Games:
Brewers @ Nationals- Nationals (Strasburg vs. Greinke)
Rangers @ Red Sox- Red Sox (Lester vs. Darvish)
Oh what an interesting scenario we are given here. A one-game winner-take-all play in format for the Wild Card teams. What we see here is that the pitching matchup really makes a difference. In a 5-game format, the Brewers and Rangers would probably have more of a chance. However, with the pitching matchups listed above, it's very hard not to go with the electric arm of Strasburg and the experience of Lester.
ALDS:
Yankees @ Red Sox- Yankees
Angels @ Tigers- Angels
NLDS:
Phillies @ Nationals: Phillies
Diamondbacks @ Reds: Reds
ALCS:
Angels @ Yankees- Yankees
NLCS:
Reds @ Phillies- Reds
These two series are both very hard to predict. Honestly, we can't even be confident that the Reds will even be in the playoffs (let alone have the pitching to advance to the NLCS). However, I have less confidence in the Phillies to be able to hold onto their NL East crown, and I think they might wind up out of the playoffs altogether.
World Series:
Reds @ Yankees- Yankees
This would be a fun World Series to watch. Honestly, I think the Yankees have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, and they'll have done away with their biggest competition in the ALDS. The only team from the NL that I think could beat an AL team in the World Series is the Phillies, but I don't think they have the offense to win it all. I think the Yankees win in 2012.
Final Thoughts
The top teams in the American League have sent a message: if you want to win, you better be able to spend big bucks and develop talent through your farm. There are five teams that have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the league: Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, and Angels. If you aren't one of these teams in the AL, then you're going to be looking for nothing short of a miracle to win the World Series. In the National League, the story is going to revolve around comebacks and replacements. With the top two free agents (Pujols and Fielder) ditching for the AL, the NL lost 10 wins (or more) of value as a league. Pitchers such as Josh Johnson, Stephen Strasburg, and Adam Wainwright will be looking to show that they will bounce back from injury to help lead their teams to the playoff chase. Unlike the American League, the National League is wide open. Any of as many as 9 teams could emerge as the playoff favorite: Phillies, Nationals, Marlins, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Giants. Quite frankly, I think this will make the NL Pennant chase much more exciting, but I think it means the AL Playoffs will be a little more fun to watch. Ultimately, 2012 may not produce as good of a season as 2011, but it will definitely be another great chapter in the long history of this great sport.
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