Breakout, Bust, or Rebound? Part Six: Madison Bumgarner

Now that finals are gone and I'm sitting around with a whole lot of nothing to do, there is no better way to spend time than to continue the "Breakout, Bust, or Rebound?" series.  Now, in the past we've looked at a member of the Giants' staff: Ryan Vogelsong.  I don't want to push any one team on anyone, but there is another interesting candidate on the staff, and that individual is Madison Bumgarner.
 

Now, to understand Bumgarner, it's important to consider where he's come from.  Firstly, he'll be 22 years old at the beginning of next year, so he's really young and is still developing physically.  He was drafted 10th overall in 2007 straight out of high school (he passed up a scholarship to UNC to play professionally).  He's a big, tall left-hander with great stuff and better control.  His tall frame gives him better leverage on the ball and has likely helped with his velocity, the break on his pitches, and the control that he is able to feature.  The main reason I'm giving you all of this background?  Well, you'll probably be getting asked what a guy's history is when you tell people that he's an official Breakout Candidate.
 
But why?  Why is Bumgarner a breakout candidate, Wooly?  Well, I will certainly not point to the praise he has been given as a prospect.  In relative terms, that doesn't mean much of anything.  To gain understanding of why Bumgarner will break out, we need to look at a few things: his physical attributes, his pitch arsenal, his strikeout ability, his control, and his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark and avoid hard hit balls.  Let's look at each of them individually:
 
1) Physical attributes
 
Bumgarner is a big (225 pounds), tall (6'5) lefty.  As mentioned before, this frame aids him in several ways.  He's able to get more leverage on the ball, he's able to get more force behind it due to his muscle, and the longer arms allow him to release the ball closer to home plate, which gives it more "pop" and makes it appear to go even faster than it already is.  His big frame and muscle mass also helps give him more endurance, which allows him to avoid a decrease in the quality of his pitches as time goes on.
 
2) Pitch Arsenal
 
Bumgarner is a four pitch pitcher who relies on control and the aforementioned "pop" to record outs.  He features a fastball in the low 90's, a slider in the high 80's, a curve in the high 70's, and a change-up in the low-mid 80's.  Having four pitches that he can control gives him the ability to keep hitters off-balance, which helps him record strikeouts that he would otherwise not get.  The two most important things to remember about Bumgarner are this: 1) He can control his fastball extremely well.  2) His slider is devastating and is a high quality out pitch.  Now, for long-term success, he might want to throw fewer sliders so that his arm doesn't blow up, but fastball control speaks to a lengthy and successful career, especially with an out pitch as good as his slider.
 
3) Strikeouts
 
Madison Bumgarner definitely has the ability to strike guys out.  In 2010, he had some struggles with his slider and didn't get as many punchouts, but that changed in 2011 as his slider came in at 17 win shares, which helped his strikeout rate jump to 8.40 K/9.  That's a really good rate to hold in the majors, as it's nearly two strikeouts more than the average starter.  Striking batters out saves the defense and reduces the possibility of damage occurring.
 
4) Limiting Walks
 
This is something that Bumgarner does extremely well.  In the last two years, his average BB/9 is 2.06, which is very, very good for a starting pitcher (as it's about a walk less than the average starter.  The ability to avoid walks keeps down the number of baserunners, which makes it harder for teams to do more damage when they hit home runs or other types of extra base hits.
 
5) Limiting Power and Contact
 
Since Bumgarner plays in AT&T park, I'm ignoring his HR/9 and ISO numbers.  This is where WH% and the metrics from my study come in handy.  Bumgarner does a great job of limiting well hit balls, which makes it even harder for batters to do damage against him.  This analysis avoids reliance on the park the player is playing in, so it translates into future success in other parks.
 
Real Life Value to the Giants
 

It is really hard to be more valuable to a team than Madison Bumgarner is right now to the Giants.  He's coming off of a 5.5 fWAR season (probably around 4.2 when accounting for his ballpark), and he's not even arbitration eligible until 2014 (and he's under team control through 2017).  He made 450,000 dollars with the Giants last year, so he really is one of (if not THE) most valuable asset the Giants have from a cost efficiency standpoint.
 
As stated above, Bumgarner really has the five key things I look for when projecting future success.  I really don't see much of a flaw in his game, and he looked very good in his first full season.  In fact, he made pitching 200 innings look relatively easy, when it really isn't.  In 2011, this is what Bumgarner's splits look like:
 
204.2 IP/ 8.40 K/9/ 2.02 BB/9/ 3.10 xFIP/ 46.0 GB%/ 33.4 FB%/ 5.5 fWAR
 
Now, given that Bumgarner is going to turn 22 next year, it's safe to assuming that he's going to keep developing physically.  This should allow him to keep up his strength and stamina, and more experience throwing his four pitches may give him more balance in his approach.  This will likely help his strikeout rate and allow him to improve his strikeout rate even more.   Given that, I think it's reasonable to assume that his overall stats will be even better.  I would feel comfortable predicting this from Bumgarner next year:
 
220 IP/ 8.65 K/9/ 1.91 BB/9/ 2.95 xFIP/ 47.0% GB/ 35.0% FB/ 6.4 fWAR
 
This improvement would make him one of the best pitchers in all of MLB, which is exactly what I expect from a pitcher of his caliber.
 
Fantasy Value
 

Bumgarner is a very attractive asset to have, but he also has a couple of major flaws that are outside of his control.  To start, here's what Bumgarner did in 2011 based on a traditional 5x5 system:
 
13 Wins/ 3.21 ERA/ 191 K/ 1.212 WHIP/ 0 SV
 
Those are really good numbers (204 IP for those of us with IP limits) from a starting pitcher.  He made 33 starts and provided a great overall body of work.  Now, given what I have said earlier, I expect the middle three numbers to get better, and the outside numbers are really out of Bumgarner's control.  To this point in the off season, the Giants haven't done anything to make their offense better, and it's still unknown if they will give Brandon Belt consistent playing time at first to bolster the offense.  With that being said, here's what I expect from Bumgarner in 2012:
 
15 Wins/ 2.75 ERA/ 211 K/ 1.15 WHIP/ 0 SV
 
Those are the numbers of a guy that you can comfortably slide into the top of a rotation.  However, Bumgarner's a guy that I think will get overlooked by most projection systems.  While Bumgarner got a lot of strikeouts and has great peripherals, his WHIP, ERA, and Wins weren't super sexy in 2011.  Now, I think common sense would dictate within the average fan that going from 21 to 22 increases the likelihood of improvement, but I think people may underestimate the potential improvement that Bumgarner can have.  In a 12 team format, guys like Lincecum, Sabathia, Verlander, and Halladay will go in the first couple rounds.  However, I don't think Bumgarner is going to be that much less valuable than those individuals.  He'll be less valuable because of the wins and WHIP, but his ERA and strikeouts will be right up there with the elite pitchers in the league.  Just remember one thing: I projected Bumgarner based on what I think is most realistic.  However, that does not eliminate the strong possibility that Bumgarner out-performs the projections I have given.  His strikeout ability and control will help all of his numbers next year, and he plays in the type of park that can really help inflate pitching numbers.
 
Yeah, Madison Bumgarner is a major Breakout Candidate for 2012.

Tigers’ 5th Starter

The Detroit Tigers have 4 solid starters in their current rotation: 2011 Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello. With Brad Penny leaving via Free Agency, the Tigers have a vacancy and are likely to fill that void internally. The rotation is righty-heavy, so a left-hander is an obvious choice and the Tigers have a slew of left-handed pitching prospects. But then there’s top prospect Jacob Turner who would be tempting to insert in the rotation despite not turning 21 until May (but that hasn’t stopped the Tigers from promoting a pitching prospect early before, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Andrew Miller to name a few).

Below I’ll list the 6 candidates that will compete for the Tigers’ 5th starter job in order of who I like the best to the least.

1. Drew Smyly – Smyly only has 1 year of pro-ball experience, but as a college draftee, he is more matured than Turner. Smyly split time between high-A and AA last year, combining a total of 126 innings, 5.95 IP/start, 9.29 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 7.37 H/9, 0.14 HR/9, 2.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 2.30 FIP. Based on minor league stats, the 5.95 IP/start is the most out of any of the candidates and the 2.07 ERA and the 2.30 FIP is the lowest of all the candidates. Given his age (23 next year), he is expected to rapidly go through the minors and given his first year stats, he is likely to have good success. The lack of AAA experience might shy away from giving him the job right out of ST, but if he can duplicate his minor league stats during ST, it’ll be hard not to give it to him. If he does fail to get the job, they’ll likely put him in AAA.

2. Adam Wilk – He’s a year older than Smyly and has an edge in minor league experience and major league experience. His minor league numbers include: 343 2/3 IP, 5.82 IP/start, 6.73 K/9, 8.01 H/9, 0.68 HR/9, 2.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.17 FIP. The key to Wilk’s success is his walk rate, which has never exceeded over 2.00 in his minor league career. As such, he has the lowest WHIP of all the candidates and the 2nd lowest ERA and FIP. The downside is that while he has major league experience, it’s all in relief. Therefore, the Tigers might only be viewing him as a reliever. His major league stats include 13 1/3 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 5.13 FIP. If he doesn’t get the job, he could still make the team as a reliever or be a part of the AAA rotation.

3. Jacob Turner – Turner definitely has the biggest upside of all the candidates, but he’s also the least matured out of all of them. He is only ranked this high because the Tigers have a reputation of rushing their top pitching prospects. Turner’s minor league numbers are good, but not awe-inspiring: 249 1/3 IP, 5.66 IP/start, 7.65 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 7.72 H/9, 0.61 HR/9, 3.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.25 FIP. He made 3 spot starts for the Tigers in 2011, giving up 12 ER in 12 2/3 IP and was most notable for struggling to keep runners on hold, allowing 7 stolen bases. If he fails to get the rotation spot, he could go back all the way to AA, but AAA is more likely.


4. Duane Below – Below has 2 things going for him, he’s the oldest therefore he has lots of minor league experience and he also has major league experience starting, albeit only 2 games plus 12 games in relief. His minor league numbers are as follows: 592 IP, 5.26 IP/start, 8.44 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 8.74 H/9, 0.78 HR/9, 3.72 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.71 FIP. His AAA stats are more impressive; in 18 starts he has a 3.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 6.39 IP/start. The IP/start is important as it shows the pitcher can pitch deep into games and over 6 innings is an encouraging sign. However, in those 18 starts, he had a 4.21 FIP which implies that he was a little lucky with his ERA. In his 2 ML starts, he gave up 5 ER in 9 2/3 IP and in his 12 relief appearances he had a 4.19 ERA. There isn’t much upside here, but they can go to him as a stopgap. He can win a spot in the bullpen if he fails to make the rotation or go back to AAA.


5. Andy Oliver – Oh how the mighty have fallen. At one time, Oliver was easily a top 3 Tigers prospect, but lately he has fallen, probably out of the top 5. There’s still promise here, but he has lost control and has command issues of his pitches lately. It might have been a sign that the Tigers had rushed him as he made 5 ML starts in his first year in pro-ball. He has the most ML starting experience out of all the candidates (7 starts), but has not looked good. His career minor league stats are: 277 1/3 IP, 5.66 IP/start, 8.50 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, 8.63 H/9, 0.91 HR/9, 4.12 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.09 FIP. His major league stats: 31 2/3 IP, 7.11 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 6.54 K/9, 5.97 BB/9, 10.52 H/9, 1.71 HR/9, 6.44 FIP. The good news is he’ll only be 24 next year, so there is still some time. He could make the team as a reliever if he doesn’t make the rotation, but I see him in AAA again.


6. Casey Crosby – The dark-horse candidate. Crosby has loads of talent and at one point was a top prospect for the Tigers, but injuries have done him in as he missed almost all of the 2010 season. After his great 2009 season in A-ball, his 2011 season at AA was disappointing. His total minor league stats are: 253 1/3 IP, 4.61 IP/start, 8.88 K./9, 4.69 BB/9, 7.71 H/9, 0.53 HR/9, 3.55 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3.65 FIP. A lot has to go right and a lot has to go wrong for the other 5 candidates in order for him to snatch the job. I expect him to go back to AA for 2012, but there is a chance he could go to AAA.

Those are the internal candidates. There has been talk that the Tigers will get someone with more ML experience to for this competition. There is some speculation that new acquired pitcher Collin Balester (who has 22 ML starts) will also be competing for a rotation spot, but I don’t see it. There was talks about acquiring Gio Gonzalez during the Winter Meetings, but fell through when the Athletics asked for too much. I think the Tigers are going to go with the low risk/high reward type of deal. Free Agents that could help are, Rich Harden, Kevin Millwood and Brandon Webb.

The Winter Meetings: Recap

To start, let's get one thing out of the way: I'm going to be talking about the entire week, and not just the meetings.  This is because a lot of the negotiation for these moves likely happened during the short span of time that people had to talk in Dallas this week.  Rather than spend a lot of time introducing you to the concept of talking rumors and that nonsense, I'm going to make this simple: post a move, talk about the positives and negatives, and then give it a grade.  Without further ado, here we go:

Blockbuster Moves:

Albert Pujols Signs with Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Terms of Agreement: 10 years/ $254 million- Full NTC- 10 year services clause

Simply nothing else to lead off with, really.  This is the kind of move that grabs the attention of everyone in the baseball world.  Rumors of Pujols' interest in the Cardinals, Marlins, and a "mystery team" swirled late Monday and into Tuesday, but the Angels came out on top.  The terms of the deal are unique for a very unique player.  Assuming roughly 5.3 D/WAR over the ten years, Pujols has to give roughly 48 wins in on-field value to be worth the deal.  However, the no-trade clause may require a bit more than that since it holds undetermined monetary value to the player.  However, the increased popularity in the team has a positive impact that should make the deal relatively worthwhile as long as Pujols doesn't suffer a major injury.  However, getting wrapped up in 10 years and 250 million dollars just doesn't seem worth it, no matter who the player is.

Wooly's Grade: B-


Jose Reyes Cashes in with Marlins

Terms of Agreement: 6 years/$102 million-Option for 7th year at $22 million with a $4 million buyout

There was speculation over the exact interest that the Marlins had in Reyes, given that Hanley Ramirez was signed long-term and seemed to show little interest in switching positions.  Nonetheless, the Marlins went fishing and caught a big one early (pun definitely intended).  Reyes' deal is one of the rare $100+ million contracts with a shot to be a mega-steal.  Reyes has 4 seasons with 5.0+ WAR under his belt, and he'll be 29 next year.  Now, being at a skill position likely weakens his chances to repeat that success, but it's 100 over 6 years.  A $17 million AAV requires Reyes to provide about 20 or so wins in value.  Considering he's provided about 16 in his last three completely healthy seasons, it would appear that he can do that.  The issue, however, is health.  Marlins avoided any kind of NTC, and got a good AAV for a shortstop as good as this one.

Wooly's Grade: A

C.J. Wilson Signs with Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Terms of Agreement: 5 years/ $77.5 million

C.J. Wilson reportedly had a tough decision to make: take the money of his dreams or get to play in his back yard in LA.  As you can see, the Straight Edge lefty chose to go home.  He gave a pretty nice discount to the Angels, too.  A 15.5 AAV only requires Wilson to be roughly a 3 WAR pitcher over the next 5 years, which is only asking for 15 wins in value.  Wilson has produced 10.5 in the last two years.  Yes, he is on the wrong side of 30 and a lot of people don't like his stuff going forward, but he's produced extremely well over two years, and he could look even better away from Arlington.

Wooly's Grade: A-

Second Tier:

Matt Moore Signs Extension with Rays

Terms of Agreement: 5 years/ $14 million

If you are sitting there asking yourself "who is this and why is he the frontliner for the 2nd tier?" then you need to go do some research.  Matt Moore is a studly young lefty for the Rays who has one of the easiest deliveries you will ever see.  Not only that, he chucks gas.  96+ with frequency and a couple good off-speed pitches to boot.  The Rays are asking for Moore to produce 3 wins in value over 5 years...FIVE YEARS.  Moore could be just better than half a win a year as a starter to be worth the deal...and he produced 0.4 wins in 9.1 innings last year.........................

Wooly's Grade: A+

Heath Bell Also to Miami

Terms of Agreement: 3 years/ $27 million

I am not a fan of this deal at all.  The Marlins need to replace their closer after the man formerly known as Leo Nunez was found to have a fake identity, but they didn't need to do it like this.  Last year, Bell was only worth about a half a win, and his numbers aren't good.  His K rate dropped by 4, he was helped by a 60 point drop in BABIP, and got slightly fewer ground balls...and did much worse than in 2010.  The declining velocity and k rate are not signs that a team should sign a closer to this kind of deal.

Wooly's Grade: D

Trevor Cahill Dealt to D'Backs

Terms of Agreement:
ARI gets: Cahill, Breslow, Cash Considerations
OAK gets: Parker, Cowgill, Cook

For the sake of saving some space, I'll let you do the research on Breslow, Cowgill, and Cook.  They are more minor pieces in the deal.  I want to focus on Trevor Cahill and Jarrod Parker.  Cahill is a young, cost-controlled innings eater who provides pretty good value.  A 2.35 average WAR over the past two years makes him a quality mid-rotation starter for the Diamondbacks.  Believe it or not, those are not terribly easy to come by.  The A's get Parker in this deal, who has a great arm, electric stuff, and can suffer from command issues.  Fastball/slider/curve/change arsenal gives him upside above what Cahill currently provides, and it gets the A's contract relief and makes them a bit younger.

Wooly's Grade: A for Oakland, B- for Arizona


Mark Buehrle Joins Marlins

Terms of Agreement: 4 years/ $58 million

I am a little surprised at how little this deal got mentioned during the meetings.  Buehrle pumps out 3.5 WAR seasons like it's nobody's business.  Yes he's older, but he's a smart pitcher, not a power pitcher.  He succeeds by knowing his scouting reports, working fast, and throwing tons of strikes (he very rarely walks guys and has impeccable control).  His deal is asking him for about 10 wins in value over 4 years, which is an average of 2.5 wins a season.  I think this deal is pretty much completely spot on with market value, and the Marlins addressed a big need by adding a consistent starter who has gone 200+ innings every year in his career.

Wooly's Grade: A-

Sergio Santos traded to Toronto

Terms of Agreement:
TOR gets: Sergio Santos
CWS gets: Nestor Molina

The market for relief pitching has been rather ridiculous over the past calendar year.  This is the kind of move that still has me scratching my head a bit.  Yes, Santos struck out 13 batters per 9 last year, but the rest of his stats weren't anything special.  Too many walks to make his independents look great like they could have been.  IMO, Kenny Williams won this trade by getting a starter with great command that projects to the middle of the rotation (possibly higher, possibly bullpen) for a relief pitcher that shouldn't be terribly hard to replace.

Wooly's Grade: A- for the CWS, C- for TOR

Third Tier:

Pagan for Torres and Ramon Ramirez

Terms of Agreement:
SF gets: Angel Pagan
NYM gets: Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez

This trade really isn't a big win for either team, but it fulfills some needs for both teams.  Sandy Alderson clearly wanted to improve the bullpen and knows he's going into rebuild mode, which is why he was willing to part with the 30 year-old Pagan. Now, Andres Torres is no spring chicken and is actually under contract longer than Pagan (which is part of the reason the Mets can't win this trade, really), but he'll have to battle in spring training for a starting OF spot (though he's very likely to win it).  The kicker in this deal is Ramon Ramirez.  He's a good relief pitcher that can pitch nearly 70 innings a year.

Wooly's Grade: B- for NYM, D+ for SF

LaTroy Hawkins Signs with Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Terms of Agreement: 1 year/ $3 million

The Angels made a couple of big splashes, but every team that wants to win needs to be able to fill out the roster around those great players.  The Hawkins signing accomplishes that.  He can pretty easily provide close to a win in value when he's healthy, and he's not even being asked to do that in this contract.  Good move for both sides.

Wooly's Grade: B

Octavio Dotel to Detroit

Terms of Agreement: 1 year/ $3.5 million

This deal is very similar to the one above.  The Tigers had bullpen problems in the post season last year, and based on the way the division is shaping up, they'll be there again next year.  Dotel is a cost effective pitcher being asked for less than a win in value, which he should be able to provide with relative ease.

Wooly's Grade: B

Aaron Harang to LAD

Terms of Agreement: 2 years/ $12 million

This deal is a hard one to comprehend.  Harang hasn't produced a win of value in either of his last two seasons, he's well beyond the best years of his career, his strikeout rate is going south, and moving anywhere that isn't PETCO can only make things appear worse.  6 million dollars isn't a lot, but it's too much for a guy that won't live up to the contract.  If the Dodgers were going to spend unwisely, they could have at least thrown the cash at better players.

Wooly's Grade: D

The Rest:

Ian Stewart to the North Side

Terms of Agreement:
CHC gets: Ian Stewart, Casey Weathers
COL gets: Tyler Colvin, D.J. LeMahieu

This deal doesn't do a whole lot but move around some filler pieces to make rosters work better.  Cubs currently don't have a third baseman, and it has been suggested that Ian Stewart needs a change of scenery. The same can be said for Tyler Colvin, who was never going to find playing time being blocked by the contracts of Soriano, Byrd, and DeJesus in the outfield.  The move gives a few guys a new chance to succeed and allows each club to up their options at positions of need.

Wooly's Grade: C for both teams

Huston Street to San Diego

Terms of Agreement:
SD gets: Huston Street
COL gets: PTBNL

Really like this move for Colorado.  Street was an expensive option at the back end of the bullpen with skill and injury issues.  He's been worth an average of 0.75 wins the last two years, and last year was only 0.5.  Colorado is eating the salary, but Street wasn't worth anything to them.

Wooly's Grade: A for COL, C- for SD

Bedard Signs with Pirates

Terms of Agreement: 1 year/ $4 million

I was surprised by this move, and I love it for the Pirates.  While Bedard hasn't been pitching much at all over the past 3 years, he's produced 5.3 wins in value over that span, which is about 9 million dollars in value per year.  Pittsburgh gets him for half of that.  It's not likely, but if he can possibly stay healthy, this is a major steal that makes the Pirates a lot better.  Baseball needs more moves like this.

Wooly's Grade: A

Jon Rauch Signs on With Mets

Terms of Agreement: 1 year/ $3.5 Million

This move really could go either way.  Rauch was atrocious last year, but has been well worth this kind of contract over the previous 4 years.  He's only being asked to produce .6 wins in value, so if he can't do that, I blame him, not the Mets.

Wooly's Grade: B-

Frank Francisco to NYM

Terms of Agreement: 2 years/ $12 million

The Mets sought out to fix their bullpen, and made some good moves, but this one is questionable.  6 million dollars is about 1.2 wins in value, and Francisco hasn't produced that since 2008, even though he's come extremely close on two occasions (1.1 and 1.0).  Francisco may not be worth the deal, but should be close.

Wooly's Grade: C+

Jerry Hairston Picks Dodgers

Terms of Agreement: 2 years/ $6 million

Once again I do not know what the heck the Dodgers are doing.  However, this time they are doing it for next to nothing.  Hairston has averaged about 0.7 wins the last three years, and all he has to do is repeat that twice to be well worth the deal.

Wooly's Grade: B-

Matt Capps Back to Twins

Terms of Agreement: 1 year/ $4.75 million- Option for 2013

This one could go either way.  Will the Twins get 2010 Matt Capps or 2011 Matt Capps?  If they get 2010, this is right at market value and is a good deal.  If they get 2011 Matt Capps, he's a negative WAR player that shouldn't be on a MLB roster.

Wooly's Grade: C

Alex Gonzalez Newest Player to Join Crew

Terms of Agreement: 1 year/ Undisclosed amount

The intent of this deal is clear: get better on defense.  Yuni B and Alex Gonzalez were pretty similar offensive players last year.  However, one thing is clear: Gonzalez isn't the worst defensive shortstop in the league.  In fact, he's way better than Betancourt was.  Value-wise this deal doesn't improve the Crew a lot, but it makes them better on defense, which is a plus.

Wooly's Grade: C-

Winners and Losers

Winners:

1) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Get a new TV deal, get new superstars.  Pretty simple formula for a franchise that probably feels tired of playing second fiddle in the media, the rumor mill, and their own city.  If for only a short while, the Angels are currently the center of the baseball world, and their revenue stream spike will probably speak to that.  Have needs, get them filled.  Good job by the Angels.

2) Miami Marlins

Get a new stadium, new name, and flashy new uniforms, get new superstars.  The biggest splash (yes, more bad puns) before the Pujols/Wilson duo decision was the fact that the Marlins were dominating the headlines.  They signed Reyes, Bell, and Buehrle to deals and were reportedly in deep on both Pujols and Wilson.  The Marlins, whether their financial record is clean or dirty, met their goals this Winter Meetings.

3) New York Mets

Even though they didn't make a big move and lost Jose Reyes, the Mets had a good Winter Meetings.  Alderson apparently wasn't highly interested in keeping Reyes at his cost, and instead went and addressed bullpen needs.  Doing this in a cost efficient manner definitely caught my attention.

Losers:

1) Texas Rangers

You have to go into the Winter Meetings and do something, Texas.  If you aren't going to bring back C.J. Wilson, you should probably have fixed the 1B problem while in Dallas.  Now they run the risk of Prince signing elsewhere, losing Wilson, and being left much worse off for 2012.  I don't get the conservative approach after going to the WS for the 2nd time in a row and losing for the 2nd time in a row.  Gotta get more aggressive and finish the deal, especially with what LAA did.

2) St. Louis Cardinals

There is really only one thing to point out here: they lost Albert Pujols.  Yes, they lost him to a team that offered him a lot nicer deal for a lot more money, but they still lost Albert Pujols.  Yes, they can move Berkman to first and play Craig in RF, but they lost Albert Pujols.  If you didn't catch it before: they lost Albert Pujols.

3) Los Angeles Dodgers

Say you're going to not bring back washed up players, then go replace them with washed up players.  Yes, they got a nice gift earlier in the off season with the Matt Kemp signing, but that's not a Winter Meetings deal.  Dodgers disappointed this off season, as I really thought they would try to be more active.

Best Individual Contract for a Player

This is reserved for one guy, and that's Albert Pujols.  He gets 10 years of full no-trade security, and oh yeah, he also gets 254 million dollars.  Very rarely will this kind of opportunity ever come for a player, and Albert certainly appears to have earned it.

Best Individual Contract for a Team

Easy: the Matt Moore signing.  Moore could easily be worth 5 times what his contract is asking him to do.  One of the best young talents in baseball for less than 3 million AAV is just ridiculous.

Best Individual Return in a Trade

I really like Oakland's side of the Trevor Cahill deal.  After getting a bit unlucky in 2011, I didn't think Cahill would go for as much as he did.  Parker is a great centerpiece, and Cowgill is pretty nice to get in return as well.

Worst Individual Return in a Trade

This goes to San Diego in the Huston Street deal.  What are you doing, SD?  You traded for a closer worse than the one you had.  What is the point of that?

Most Surprising Thing from the Meetings

Pretty much nothing from the Yankees or Red Sox.  Yes, David Ortiz accepted arbitration (a longer deal could be agreed to, which is why I didn't put it in here), but outside of that, the two traditional powerhouses stayed put.  In fact, they barely got tossed around in rumors.  Perhaps for the first time in a while, both teams were put into a place where they didn't have the roster space to make big moves.

So What Happens Next?

The flurry of activity won't stop just because the Winter Meetings are over.  In fact, Rafael Furcal signed with the Cardinals this afternoon, reportedly.  Yu Darvish was just posted this week, and Yoenis Cespedes is expected to be posted rather soon.  Along with them, one really big fish remains unsigned, and someone is going to land him: Prince Fielder.  The Mariners, Cubs, Orioles, Rangers, and Marlins are teams that keep getting thrown around, so we'll see what happens.  No doubt was this one of the most active Winter Meetings in History, and if you'd like to keep up, make sure to head to MLB Trade Rumors for more information.

A Look Back: Pedro Martinez

In the history of Major League Baseball, there are few names that have stood out from the rest.  Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Lou Gehrig, and Walter Johnson are a few of those names.  In the height of the steroid era, names such as Ken Griffey, Jr., Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Roger Clemens dominated the headlines.  These individuals dominated through their great strength, flashy ability, and intimidation.  However, one name should not be forgotten, and that is Pedro Martinez.  From 1997-2003, there was not a better pitcher in baseball.  While home run hitters will mashing balls and selling tickets, thus making the game explode in popularity, Pedro was making them look like grade school kids at the plate.  Since the recording of advanced statistics is shaky at best for Pedro's time, here's a more traditional look at that seven year stretch Martinez produced on average:

201 IP/ 2.20 ERA (213 ERA+)/ 0.940 WHIP/ 5.59 K/BB (8.5 WAR)

Wow.  To say it simply, Pedro was 113 points in ERA+ better than the league average (insane), was a lock for 200 innings (he got hurt one year and only pitched 116 innings), struck out batters almost 6 times as often as he walked them, and allowed less than one baserunner per inning over 1,400 innings and seven seasons.

Dominance thy name is Pedro Martinez.

And remember, this is at the height of the steroid era.  This is when offensive players were mashing the ball at unbelievable rates.  In Martinez' epic 2000 season, the average AL player put up the following slash line:

.276 BA/ .349 OBP/ .443 SLG/ .792 OPS

How did they do in 2011, you ask?

.258 BA/ .323 OBP/ .408 SLG/ .730 OPS

Pedro Martinez dominated his competition in a far stronger offensive AL.  Nobody today could even hold a candle to Pedro's 7 year performance.  For reference, let's look at what this year's AL Cy Young winner did:

251 IP/ 2.40 ERA (170 ERA+)/ .920 WHIP/ 4.39 K/BB (7.0 WAR)

In what was wildly considered the best season in the AL by a pitcher in 2011, which wowed media members, Justin Verlander was not even as close to the average Pedro Martinez season (and with that WAR value, consider Pedro had a season where he only pitched 116 innings).

What made Pedro so good?  Why was a 5'11 170 lb skinny Dominican kid able to come up and beat down on some of the best sluggers of all time?  He had incredible finesse and control.  Not only did Pedro have a great fastball that he could control extremely well, but he had a devastating slider to go along with it.  However, what really put Pedro Martinez over the top is a pitch that I consider to be one of the best ever: his change-up.  It is unfortunate that win values for individual pitches aren't available before 2002, but from what I have to look on, I can only imagine how valuable the pitch would have been in Pedro's best seasons in 1999 and 2000.  Here are the win values from Pedro's 2002-2005 seasons just on his change-up:

13.1
11.5
8.2
15.2

Those are win values for Pedro at the ages of 30-33, so I can only imagine how amazing the pitch would have been when Pedro was 25-29.  If I were to guess, I would say that Pedro would have been able to put up around 75 win values on his change-up alone in that span.  Pedro used this change-up along with his amazing control on his fastball to walk a grand total of 315 guys over 7 seasons.  Nolan Ryan walked 364 batters in two years (1973-1974).  This amazing control allowed Pedro to shine the brightest in a time where sluggers dominated the landscape.  Fortunately, I was able to see Pedro once during this 7 year span of dominance, and that was in 2003 at Fenway against the Angels.  Pedro is well on his way to Cooperstown.  In fact, you'll see him there in roughly 5 years.

When you think of dominance, think of Pedro Martinez.

The Hypothetical Pittsburgh Pirates

When looking through some drafts from early in the 2000s- most notably 2002- I noticed the Pirates incompetence in the draft, and figured it'd be fun to make a hypothetical team for the Pirates assuming a few things- they drafted the best player that went after their slot at the position they drafted for, and that cost wasn't an issue, so they still own all of these players. The second issue is better explained by Longoria-like extensions signed earlier on. Using this model, I'm going to estimate their optimal 2011 team and their optimal farm system going forward.

So, without further ado:

2002: The Bucs drafted Bryan Bullington with the first overall selection in the 2002 draft- he of -0.4 career WAR. In the first round of that draft, Zack Greinke, Jeff Francis, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Blanton, and Matt Cain were all also selected. The worst of those, as ranked by career WAR, is Francis at 7.9. The rest all have over 10 WAR, with Greinke, Cain, and Hamels all over 20 and still young and under team control so we can assume had Pittsburgh chosen one of them they'd still have them- the teams that signed them still have them with the exception of Kansas City who traded Greinke with multiple cost-controlled seasons still on his deal last offseason. I'm going to say they draft Greinke, because he went towards the top of the draft so there's a good chance he was one of their top options after Bullington.

2003: The Bucs drafted Paul Maholm one slot ahead of still-team-controlled John Danks, and way ahead of Chad Billingsley. Since they were a slot apart I'll give them Danks. So now they have a staff of Danks and Greinke.

2004: They chose Neil Walker with their first selection, which is turning out to be a fine selection.

2005: They chose Andrew McCutchen here. Another great decision.

2006: They picked Brad Lincoln, one spot in front of Brandon Morrow and three in front of Clayton Kershaw. Also picked in said first round were: Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Kyle Drabek, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Bard, Joba Chamberlain, and Chris Perez. Ian Kennedy looks like a solid median selection here, but they had an early pick so let's say they choose Kershaw- this is hypothetical, after all. So now its Walker/Kershaw/AMC/Greinke/Danks- an unbelievable under-team-control core heading into 2012.

2007: My goodness, what a disastrous pick. They chose Daniel Moskos, another pitcher. One spot in front of 2012 break-out candidate catcher Matt Wieters, and a few spots in front of insanely talented and hyped hurlers Jarrod Parker and Madison Bumgarner. Jason Heyward also went later in that same draft. Lets say they choose Parker because I've been too generous with optimal situations and Bumgarner has been awesome. Oh boy.

2008: They drafted Pedro Alvarez who seems to have talent, so solid pick.

2009: They took catcher Tony Sanchez. Lets do a switcharoo because I like Jacob Turner more than Jarrod Parker and I'm running this hypothetical Pirates team. I'm going to say we draft Matt Wieters in 2007 and Jacob Turner in 2009. Both end results are a catcher and a starting pitcher- just, the better catcher and better starting pitcher in each result.

2010: Jameson Taillon! I like this kid's potential.

2011: Gerrit Cole! Another pitcher whose potential I love.

In my hypothetical world, this Pirates team enters 2012 with Matt Wieters at catcher, Pedro Alvarez at third base, a rotation with Jacob Turner, Zack Greinke, John Danks, and Clayton Kershaw, and one of James McDonald/Jeff Karstens/Charlie Morton, a closer in 30-year old Joel Hanrahan, Clint Barmes at shortstop, Neil Walker at second base, somebody at first base, and an outfield of Andrew McCutchen, Garret Jones, and Jose Tabata, with Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon waiting in the wings for the future when one or more of those pitchers leave.

The 2012 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot

The BBWAA announced its ballot for the Hall of Fame election in 2012. There are twenty-seven candidates- fourteen returnees and thirteen first-timers. Here's a quick breakdown for each of the 27, a prediction of their vote % in 2012, whether I would vote for them in 2012, whether I think they should be elected, whether I think they WILL be elected, and if I think they will be elected, when.

1. Barry Larkin: Larkin was a shortstop who spent his entire career as a member of the Cincinnati Reds. He easily ranks as one of the ten best shortstops of all-time, only clearly behind Jeter, Ripken, Rodriguez, Vaughan, and Wagner, and also possibly definitely behind George Davis and Bill Dahlen, depending on your opinions of timelining. He was a career .295/.371/.444 hitter over 9057 PA- a 116 OPS+. He was a great baserunner and an above-average defender at a valuable position. Due to his career 122 wRC+ at shortstop, defensive value, and baserunning value, fangraphs credits Larkin with 70.6 WAR. Rally gives him 68.9 rWAR. As far as peak, Larkin topped 6 wins twice, but 5 a total of seven times. From '88-'99, Larkin accumulated 61.7 wins. It's also important to consider he had the highest vote percentage of all returnees.


2012 Prediction: 70-80%
Ballot: 3rd
Would I vote for Larkin? Yes.
Do I think he should be in? Yes.
Do I think he will be in? Yes.
When? 2012 or 2013.


2. Jack Morris. Morris has a reputation as a "fearsome" pitcher. He has the most wins in the 1980s which many Morris supporters like to point out. With a 5.8 K rate and a 3.3 walk rate, Morris won't get bonus points there. His 3.90 unadjusted ERA is ugly. It isn't like Andy Pettitte's steroid era-inflated ERA. His ERA+ is a mere 105 and his WHIP is a highly unimpressive 1.296. 254 wins is a lot, but Rally estimates he only provided an excess of 39.3 wins over a replacement level pitcher. He only hit 5 rWAR once, reaching 4 rWAR four other times, and only 40.4 over the fourteen year period from 1979 to 1992, averaging less than 3 per season (By contrast Larkin, averaged over 5 during his prime). Unfortunately for Morris his momentum might have come too late to get in via the BBWAA, and as sabermetric stats become more mainstream it will become more apparent that Morris was not the best pitcher of the 1980s- he was behind Stieb, Hershiser, Saberhagen, and Clemens, at least.

2012 Prediction: 57-62%
Ballot: 13th
Would I vote for Morris? No.
Do I think Morris should be in? No.
Do I think Morris will be in? No.

3. Lee Arthur Smith: Smith was heralded when he retired by many as the most likely player active in 1996 to make the Hall of Fame. Lee, now in his 11th attempt, has stalled since he debuted over 42%, failing to reach 46% in any year. And rightfully so, in my opinion. Closers won't reach the automatic thresholds of value stats usually deemed necessary for inclusion, such as 60 WAR, 3000 innings with a great ERA+, or on the basis of a 5-year, 40 WAR peak. Closers need excellent peripherals and strikeout ability. Besides the best closer ever in Rivera, no active closers have much of a chance to pass Smith in deservedness, except maybe K-Rod or Nathan. I think Hoffman will be the next reliever elected and that Wagner should join him. Besides them, it should be Mo next.

2012 Prediction: 42-46 %
Ballot: 11th
Would I vote for Smith? No.
Do I think Smith should be in? No.
Do I think Smith will be in? Yes.
When? 2016 or via VC.

4. Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell was a slugging first baseman for the Houston Astros for his entire career. He hit 449 HR and batted .297/.408/.540 playing his home games in the Astrodome for the most part. With nearly 80 rWAR, Bagwell is a statistical lock. He would have been a first ballot mortal lock if it weren't for steroid suspicion. Bagwell is possibly the best retired National League first baseman of all-time, and a top-5 first baseman of all-time. Only Gehrig and Foxx are clearly better of retired 1B. Pujols is also better than Bags. Bags won the 1994 MVP with an outstanding season of 8.9 rWAR in a strike-shortened season.

2012 Prediction: 55-65 %
Ballot: 2nd
Would I vote for him? Yes
Do I think he should be in? Yes
Do I think he will be in? Yes
When? 2014 or 2015.

5. Tim Raines. Rock Raines was the slightly lesser National League version of Rickey Henderson. He swiped over 800 bases, has over 60 rWAR, a great peak, excellent longevity, great patience, and is a clear-cut Hall of Famer in my opinion. Rickey had more power but Raines was a better fielder. Rock has been gaining momentum since his 2008 debut and that should continue with Circle Me Bert off the ballot.

2012 Prediction: 40-45%
Ballot: 5th
Would I vote for Raines? Yes.
Do I think Raines should be in? Yes.
Do I think Raines will be in? Yes.
When? 2019 or 2020.

6. Edgar Martinez. Gar is probably the best Designated Hitter ever. With over 8500 PA, Martinez has a long enough career, given his career .312/.418/.515 line, good for a 147 OPS+. Martinez was a "feared" hitter, according to many, and, for once, his stats back this assertion up. He was on of the best hitters of his era, who had some fielding value before he blew out his legs. He had a monstrous peak from 1995 to 2001, where he hit .329/.446/.574 for a 163 OPS+ over 4477 PA. He was also a career Mariner for what it's worth.

2012 Prediction: 38-41 %
Ballot: 3rd
Would I vote for Martinez? Yes.
Do I think Martinez should be in? Yes.
Do I think Martinez will be in? Maybe.
When? If yes, then via Veterans Committee.

7. Alan Trammell. Trammell is similar to Larkin. A slightly worse hitter yet better fielder and worse baserunner, Trammell had an awesome peak, played his entire with the Detroit Tigers. As the shortstop half of the double play combination with Lou Whitaker, Trammell made a name for himself. He has over 65 WAR, and is basically tied with Larkin for the best modern day shortstop not in the Hall. He's also a clear-cut top-ten Shortstop of all-time.

2012 Prediction: 27-30%
Ballot: 11th
Would I vote for Trammell? Yes.
Do I think Trammell should be in? Yes.
Do I think Trammell will be in? No.

8. Larry Walker. Walker was one of the most gifted players of all-time. Over seventeen seasons with Montreal, Colorado, and St. Louis, Walker batted .313/.400/.565 over more than 8,000 PA. He was an excellent baserunner and a superb fielder with an awesome peak as a Rockie from 1997 to 2002 where he batted .353/.441/.648 over 3227 PA. His career 140 OPS+ with great defense is what leads to his career mark of 67.3 rWAR. From 1992 to 2002, an eleven year period, Walker racked up nearly 53 WAR over 5710 PA, or about 520 per season. His injuries sapped his overall effectiveness but he was still an excellent player.

2012 Prediction: 25-33 %
Ballot: 2nd
Would I vote for Walker? Yes.
Do I think Walker should be in? Yes.
Do I think Walker will be in? Yes.
When? Veteran's Committee or 2024-25.

9. Mark McGwire. McGwire, a career Athletic/Cardinal, should be in based on his stats- a stellar OBP and SLG good for a 163 OPS+, over 60 rWAR, and 583 HR, but isn't due to steroid controversy. Big Mac hit 70 bombs in 1998 and followed it with 65 in 1999, but both years along with the majority of his career is in doubt due to his admittal in 2010 that he used steroids. His vote totals barely waver. Some people also don't feel his career is Hall-worthy because all he did was mash Home Runs and draw walks. He only had about 1625 hits, yet nearly had a .400 OBP due to tons and tons of walks.

2012 Prediction: 18-25%
Ballot: 6th
Would I vote for McGwire? Yes.
Do I think McGwire should be in? Yes.
Do I think McGwire will be in? No.

10. Fred McGriff. All he needed was 7 more HR and 3 other extra hits in 1994 and he'd be in the Hall of Fame already, a first-ballot 2010 inductee alongside Andre Dawson. But alas, the 1994 strike happened. With those 7 1994 Homers and 3 other hits he had 41 in 1994- his first and would-be-only-, 500 HR in his career, and 2500 career hits. McGriff had over 10000 PA with a 134 OPS+ as it is, and over 50 WAR. He is about as borderline as can be. Even if those extra seven bombs and ten total hits wouldn't have made him better, the perception of him as a bona-fide slugger with a 40 HR campaign and 500 total would have gotten him in. Instead, he's stuck in limbo.

2012 Prediction: 18-22%
Ballot: 3rd
Would I vote for McGriff? Maybe.
Do I think McGriff should be in? Maybe.
Do I think McGriff will be in? Maybe.

11. Don Mattingly. Mattingly is another career one-teamer. The lifelong Yankee played fourteen seasons. Had his back not given out we probably would not be having this conversation because his performance from 1990 to 1995 would have improved and he would have played past 1995, thus passing 50 and perhaps 60 WAR, getting a championship as a Yank, and perhaps gaining first-ballot entry. His back did give out, however, and a 127 OPS+ with a great peak from a first baseman over less than 8,000 PA, even in spite of his defense, just does not cut it.

2012 Prediction: 10-15%
Ballot: 12th
Would I vote for Mattingly? No.
Do I think Mattingly should be in? No.
Do I think Mattingly will be in? No.

12. Dale Murphy. Murphy, a long-time Atlanta Brave, might be in if he had hit two more HR or not let his AVE drop precipitously in the end. The back-to-back National League Most Valuable Player in 1982 and 1983 ended with 398 HR and a .265 batting average. His 121 OPS+, and ~45 rWAR are both fine, but neither increases his odds of being bestowed with baseball's highest honor. He's a fine player but I'd rather Andre Dawson or Bernie Williams.

2012 Prediction: 10-12%
Ballot: 14th
Would I vote for Murphy? No.
Do I think Murphy should be in? No.
Do I think Murphy will be in? No.

13. Rafael Palmeiro. Cue McGwire. Palmeiro failed a steroid test in his final season, 2005, just mere weeks after swearing in front of Congress he'd never used Steroids. He claimed Miguel Tejada administered the B-12 shot secretly, but nobody believes that. Palmeiro, therefore, didn't even get a fifth of the votes necessary for induction despite 569 Home Runs, 3020 Hits, a 132 OPS+, over 12000 PA, and over 65 rWAR. He has no peak to speak of and added to his career value by way of 3-4 WAR campaigns, so he isn't as much of a statistical lock as many think. Regardless, I'd probably vote for him if I could.

2012 Prediction: 15-20%
Ballot: 2nd
Would I vote for Palmeiro? Yes.
Do I think Palmeiro should be in? Yes.
Do I think Palmeiro will be in? No.

14. Juan Gonzalez. Juan Gone and his 434 HR barely made the requisite 5 % threshold to stay on the ballot. An impatient hitter, Juan had massive power. He he been more disciplined he might have been among the greatest hitters of our generation. Gonzalez was also accused of juicing, but it doesn't matter because the steroids, if he used, didn't elevate him to Hall of Fame levels.

2012 Prediction: Below 5 %
Ballot: 2nd
Would I vote for Gonzalez? No.
Do I think Gonzalez should be in? No.
Do I think Gonzalez will be in? No.

The Newcomers:

A) Jeromy Burnitz- He's on the ballot for 315 Home Runs. Less than 2o WAR? No real substantive offensive peak? Less than 5 %, and deservedly so.

B) Vinny Castilla- 95 OPS+? Next.

C) Brian Jordan- I will forever hate Brian Jordan for hitting a Grand Slam off of John Franco in 2001, so luckily he doesn't stand a prayer at induction.

D) Javy Lopez- His monstrous offensive 2003- about 500 PA with a 170 OPS+ out of a catcher- will garner him some votes as will the similarities between him and Posada, but Posada is a far superior hitter and player.

E) Bill Mueller- He's only on the ballot because the 2003 and 2004 Red Sox employed him and he got lucky and hit .326 in a weak AVG class in the 2003 AL.

F) Terry Mulholland- Long career? Yes. Good pitcher? No.

G) Phil Nevin- He had an excellent 2000 and 2001, and was a solid hitter with 200+ HR, but he doesn't deserve it.

H) Brad Radke- The career Twin is the best pitcher on the list with a 148-139 record, great control, and over 40 rWAR. He might get 10 votes, but won't make the 5% cut.

I) Tim Salmon- With 37.6 rWAR and 299 HR, the career Angel and probable best offensive player in Angels history deserve to be on the ballot and maybe even make 5 % if Juan Gonzalez can. I don't expect him to though.

J) Ruben Sierra- 20 years and 306 HR out of a slugger? Three great season? Less than 15 rWAR? Next.

K) Bernie Williams- 287 HR, 4 World Series Rings, 16 seasons as a career Yankee, over 45 rWAR, over 2300 hits, a 125 OPS+... Bernie will fly past 5 % and I could see Bernie as high as 25 % in his first showing. He might eventually make it, but I don't think I'd vote for him.

L) Tony Womack- Ha. Ha. Ha.

M) Eric Young- See above.

In conclusion, I'd vote for Larkin, Bagwell, Raines, Martinez, Trammell, McGwire, Palmeiro, and Walker, and would think about McGriff.

Who Could Be the Next Astros GM?

Sometime late Sunday night, the Houston Astros dismissed General Manager Ed Wade, who had been with the team since the end of the 2007 season. Since 2008 the team has gone 292-355, losing 106 games in 2011. The farm system is basically shot, and if any team in MLB needs a transfusion of new ideologies, it's Houston. It looked like the 'Stros had a budding dynasty as recently as six or seven years ago, but they have become, in that short of a time, the worst franchise in MLB.

Fortunately, with new owner Ed Crane in town, the team will have a shot to bring in some life. Sunday saw the departures of Wade and longtime president Tal Smith. Once a new GM is decided, manager Brad Mills and his coaching staff are believed to be on the chopping block as well.

There has been quite a bit of front office shuffling so far this offseason, with Baltimore, Minnesota, and Anaheim revamping their GM position, and Boston, San Diego and the Cubs entering a weird dance that saw three GMs and a President be appointed. The game is stocked with GMs-in waiting, and the Astros will have a tough decision to make, as there are many people in the game right now who are very qualified to take that job.

Here I will look at some of the most qualified people that the Astros should be looking at. I've broken the list into four categories: in-house options, current GMs, former GMs, and executives who have never been GMs. Let's start with the former.

In-House Options

David Gottfried: If anybody in the Astros organization deserves the job, it's Assistant and Interim GM David Gottfried. He has a long history of various management positions in the game, through the AFL and the minors, and has served in various capacities as an assistant at the major league level. One drawback to Gottfried is that his background is in delegation, not evaluation. With no real experience in either type of player evaluation (standard scouting or statistical analysis), Gottfried is not expected to hold the job, or even really be in competition for it.

Current General Managers

Andrew Friedman: Tampa Bay Rays GM Friedman is really the only option here, as most of the GMs in unstable positions have already moved around by now. Friedman is unanimously considered a top-few GM in all of professional sport, and quite possibly the best in all of baseball. He has experience in player development, is an incredibly smart man, has experience building teams, and even has Houston roots. In short, he would be perfect for the job, and you have to think that if Crane could just give it to anybody, it would be Friedman. In fact, he's the first man to whom they have obtained permission to speak. It is not impossible that he leaves Tampa Bay, but is also not likely. He has turned down many offers in the past, including several this offseason, some of which he has even declined to interview for. If there is a job in baseball that Friedman would take, one has to believe it would be Houston, but he has shown nothing but a desire to remain in Tampa in the past.

Former General Managers:

Gerry Hunsicker: Hunsicker should be a popular choice with the fans, because the last time he was a GM, he did his damndest to build a dynasty while serving as Astros GM from 1995-2004. He resigned following the 2004 season as his relationship when the then-owner Drayton McLane corroded, and has spent the last few seasons as a senior executive with the brilliantly-run Rays front office, and between the fact that he's done it before and the fact that he's hanging with the uber-modern guys with the Rays, there's no reason to not want him back. Will he want to come back to the Astros with a new ownership group?

Allard Baird: Baird had a less-than-successful stint with the Royals from 2000-2006, but has hung around the game (he is now with Boston), and has a history with classic evaluation, having served as head of both scouting and player personnel while with Boston since his dismissal from the Royals. Baird doesn't bring anything new to the table, but he's experienced in evaluation and in the front office game, if the Astros want to go that way.

JP Ricciardi: If it were up to me, Ricciardi would never sniff my GM chair. He proved slow to adapt and PR challenged while in Toronto, but he remains one of the most respected pure evaluators in the game. He has a broad resume encompassing stops as a coach and scout, but was also one of the 'moneyball' minds under Sandy Alderson, along with Beane, DePodesta et al. He was the GM of the Toronto Blue Jays from the end of 2001 until the end of 2009, and while he was incredibly efficient at first, he failed to adapt to the changing dynamics of the game, alienated players and personnel alike, and ultimately proved ineffective. Currently, he serves as a special assistant under Alderson with the Mets. He has had his issues, but is a great evaluator, has experience as a GM, and has made clear his intentions to get back to the top of a baseball front office.

Non-General Managers

This will be a quick list of my top-five candidates among those who have never held the position before:

1. Rick Hahn. Hahn is a graduate of Harvard Law, has served in virtually every capacity in baseball management, from agent to his current position of White Sox Assistant GM. He has been considered the top GM prospect for several years.

2. Tony LaCava. LaCava won the Orioles GM job before refusing it this fall. He currently serves as VP and Assistant GM in Toronto, a great front office program. His background is in player development, which should appeal to Houston, as that is what they need to do. He has been a scout, development director, and has been an assistant GM since 2007.

3. Thad Levine. Levine is an MBA out of UCLA, and is similar to Rick Hahn in his experience. He has been an ace contract negotiator and transaction expert for the Rockies before joining the Rangers as assistant GM in 2005, a position he currently occupies.

4. AJ Preller. The Texas front office works so well because they have a two-headed monster of executives under GM Jon Daniels. To counter Levine's knowledge of the on-paper front office game, they employ Preller, one of the top scouts and player development guys in the industry. He works in amateur, professional and international scouting, has experience in administration (in the AFL), and currently serves as the Rangers' Senior Director of Player Personnel.

5. David Forst. Another Harvard grad, Forst has an extensive background in scouting and player development. He has worked under Athletics GM Billy Beane for ten years, and the last six as assistant GM.

Honorable mentions:

Nationals Assistant GM Bryan Minnity: In 2009 when Washington hired him away from his job as Pirates Director of Baseball Operations, they had this to say in the release: "With the Pirates, Minniti's focuses included rules compliance, transactions, budgeting and contract negotiations. Minnity graduated from the University of Pittsburgh with a double major in Mathematics and Statistics."

MLB Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Kim Ng: Former Dodgers' Assistant GM, Ng is one of the most respected 'paper' people in baseball. Her knowledge of the rules of transactions, as well as her reputation as an elite arbitration executive has her constantly surfacing in GM talks.

Royals Assistant GM JJ Picollo: was a serious piece in the Braves front office that developed such an assembly line of talent in the early-mid 2000s as their farm director.

...

If I had to choose for the Astros, I would pick Lacava for his player development history, but there are a lot of interesting options out there for Houston, and it should be interesting to see who they go with.